With the broad market taking a pause for a commercial break, it provides the opportunity to survey the landscape and make adjustments. The last two weeks have been a whirlwind of information, worries and speculation. The day to day hot spots change rapidly as the number of events to address continues to grow. For example, this time last week the debt crisis in Europe was the topic of choice, today it is the renewal of the tax cuts. The news is pushing money from sector to sector as investors attempt to chase and capture the sector momentum.
The last week has seen a rise in the financial stocks. We discussed this yesterday relative to the banks pushing financials higher. The banking sector has gained more than 12% and looks to push even higher with money flow gaining momentum. The sector has lagged the broad market, but is now playing catch up. We have added plays in the sector, but with the quick gains managing the risk becomes a priority.
Commodities such as crude have paused following a similar run to the upside. United States Crude Oil ETF (USO) hit some resistance at $38.50. With an entry at $35.50 and a reasonable gain over two weeks protecting against the downside is necessary. The big question mark revolves around the outlook for crude to move higher. If you believe their is more room to the upside set you stop wider and hang on, if you believe the run is done for the short term set your stop tighter. If you set a target at the November high take half off and let the other half run with a stop at $36.75. The point being manage the risk of the market relative to the position and the current risk. Nobody knows the future and risk management is about the present.
Semiconductors have been one of the primary leaders for the market. iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has continued to be in a solid uptrend off the August lows. The gain of better than 35% has been positive for any portfolio. Measure the risk relative to the current market environment and the probable outlook for the sector. Adjust your stop accordingly. The 30 day moving average has been a trendline for the sector and would be a good stop level for the position based on the current outlook. Again the focus is managing your risk actively now, not when the market corrects.
Energy is another sector making solid gains of the low in August. We took a play in iShares Oil Equipment and Services (IEZ). We have experience a nice gain in the play and believe the upside to the sector is still positive. However, with the current pause we see the potential pullback to support as a possibility, but what if the downside accelerates based on news, speculation or data? The 30 day moving average has provided a trendline for the sector and based on the positive outlook is a reasonable stop currently.
Risk management is a priority when it comes to successful money management. Every position in your portfolio demand that you manage the risk in accordance with today’s knowledge and foresight. Like all money management decisions, you will not be right 100% of the time, but you will sleep better and you will have control over your portfolio risk. Take the pause in the market as an opportunity to evaluate the risk level of your current portfolio and each position.







A Note From Jim